Despite recent U.S. moves to restore military contact, the risk of conflict is rising “significantly,” Nikolay Korchunov says.

OSLO — NATO officials must strengthen military contact with Russia to reduce the growing risk of all-out war caused by miscalculation, Moscow’s envoy to Norway told POLITICO.

“The risks and danger of the military confrontation significantly are [rising] due to lack of dialogue,” Nikolay Korchunov said in an interview in his office in central Oslo. “Confidence building … [and] dialogue now is much more important on all echelons.”

The warning underscores ever-growing tensions between Russia and the West following a spate of drone and missile incursions across European skies, and suspected sabotage incidents. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Tuesday said the country was “under threat” following a suspected drone attack on a Leipzig airport last month.

NATO and Russia have sharply downgraded official contact after the latter's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Moscow and European capitals expelling numerous diplomats. Western officials have warned Russia could attack NATO territory by the end of the decade, while recent U.S. intelligence suggests an attack could come even sooner.

In a sign of how serious Washington considers that threat, CIA director John Ratcliffe travelled to Moscow on Tuesday to meet Russian officials, reportedly warning them not to escalate conflict with America’s NATO allies, especially the Baltic countries.

Korchunov, who served as Russia’s deputy ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2015, said “the risks for ... military conflict [have risen] significantly” since his tenure in Brussels, “when we had the understanding of intentions” and the alliance was less “unpredictable.”

Martin O’Donnell, a spokesperson for SHAPE, NATO's military headquarters, said that “NATO and Russia have a variety of person-to-person, military-to-military channels available for communication, which we consider open,” he said.

NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, “remains ready to engage in military-to-military dialogue with the chief of the general staff of the Russian Federation [Valery Gerasimov] to avoid miscalculation and to provide a means for avoiding unintended escalation by either side,” O’Donnell added, but declined to say whether the two have spoken.

In 2021, NATO was forced to close its military liaison mission in Moscow after Russia kicked out its staff in retaliation for the alliance expelling Russia’s envoys to NATO on security grounds. The alliance later suspended all formal political dialogue following Moscow’s full-scale invasion.

In February, the U.S. announced it had restored “high level military-to-military dialogue” with Moscow as a “means for increased transparency and de-escalation” after talks between Grynkewich and Russian officials, though it remains unclear whether the hotline has been used since.

Korchunov suggested strengthening “all dialogue” to avoid miscalculation, including direct contact between Grynkewich and Gerasimov, and meetings of top military brass from Arctic nations.

Despite his overtures to NATO, Korchunov said Moscow is no longer open to similar diplomatic contact with the EU.

“There is no dialogue with the European Union,” he said, arguing Russia would not speak to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, or European Council President António Costa.

“The European Union are on [an] escalation phase against Russia,” Korchunov added.

European Commission spokesperson Anitta Hipper said the EU retains “contact through diplomatic channels” including the bloc’s embassy in Moscow, while acknowledging “the nature and level has changed significantly” since 2022. “These channels remain in place and are used for diplomatic contacts as necessary,” she said.

Korchunov also warned that the growing military use of autonomous systems and AI could further increase the risk of accidental escalation by shortening decision-making time.

Those concerns echo warnings from the EU and U.N. chief António Guterres, which on Tuesday called for more human oversight over AI battlefield use after reports that drones guided by AI were being deployed in Ukraine.

“In a situation when the algorithms — AI rather than persons — [are used militarily], you [may] not even maybe have the time to come to the phone,” Korchunov argued.

The U.S. will examine European defense spending and military access as part of its review of American forces in Europe, said deputy Pentagon chief Elbridge Colby.

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